A Super El Niño Is Brewing: What It Means for Hawaii's Waters This Winter

If you've been hearing a lot of “El Niño” talk this year, there's a good reason. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center now puts the odds at greater than 90% that El Niño becomes very strong through fall and winter 2026–27, with some forecasters watching for what could be one of the most powerful events in over a century. It's already shaping up to be one of the seasons Hawaii's surf and ocean community will be talking about for years.

What Is El Niño, Quickly

El Niño is a natural warming of sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern Pacific that shifts wind patterns, storm tracks, and rainfall around the globe — and Hawaii sits right in the middle of its influence. Strong El Niño years tend to rewrite the playbook for both our hurricane season and our winter surf season, and this year both are lining up at once.

Hurricane Season Gets More Active

El Niño's warmer ocean water and lighter wind shear are exactly the ingredients tropical storms like. NOAA's outlook for the Central Pacific basin (the zone that matters most to us, between 140°W and the International Date Line) calls for 5 to 13 tropical cyclones this season, well above the typical 4 to 5, with roughly a 70% chance of an above-normal season overall. That tracks with what we've already seen this August — more on that in our next post.

Winter Flips the Script

Here's the twist: while El Niño ramps up storm activity in summer and fall, it tends to do the opposite to our winter rains. Hawaii's classic wet-season soakers — the slow-moving Kona lows that flood roads and swell rivers — typically become less frequent in an El Niño winter, and the overall pattern trends noticeably drier.

For surf, the pattern is a little more nuanced. Big El Niño winters generally mean fewer of the long-period Southern Hemisphere swells that we love, and a shift toward more wind-driven and North Pacific storm swell instead — meaning conditions that can be excellent, but also more sideways wind, more rain squalls when they do arrive, and more variability day to day. The general advice from seasoned forecasters this year: find a spot that handles wind swell well, and keep a well-protected backup break in your back pocket for the days conditions turn junky fast.

What This Means For You

Whether you're a longtime local or booking your first lesson with us, the takeaway is simple: this is shaping up to be an active, energetic season on both fronts — storms in the near term, and a swell pattern in flux come winter. We're watching the forecasts closely so that lessons, rentals, and tours are scheduled around the safest, best windows rather than just the calendar.

In our next two posts, we'll cover what just happened with Hurricane Lala and how our surf community — beginners especially — can stay safe and still get in the water through an unusually active stretch.